India Welcomes Early Monsoon: Kerala Gets Showers Ahead of Schedule

In a significant development for the 2025 weather calendar, the southwest monsoon made landfall in Kerala on Saturday, May 24 — marking its earliest arrival over the Indian mainland since 2009, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The monsoon typically reaches Kerala around June 1, signaling the start of the four-month rainy season that is critical to India’s agriculture, water supply, and overall economy. This year’s onset comes eight days ahead of schedule, matching a trend seen only a few times in recent decades. The last time it arrived this early was on May 23, 2009.

IMD data shows that since 1975, the earliest recorded monsoon onset was in 1990, when it hit Kerala on May 19 — a full 13 days before the usual date. In contrast, last year’s arrival was on May 30, while in 2023 it was significantly delayed, arriving on June 8.

Despite public fascination with the monsoon’s arrival date, meteorologists caution against drawing conclusions about seasonal rainfall from early onset alone. “There’s no direct correlation between when the monsoon begins in Kerala and how much rain the country will receive overall,” said an IMD official. “The monsoon is influenced by a complex mix of global and regional factors.”

Rainfall Outlook Positive for 2025
The IMD had earlier forecast above-normal rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, dismissing concerns over El Niño — a climate phenomenon typically linked with weaker monsoon rains. Rainfall in the range of 96% to 104% of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm is considered ‘normal’.

India received 934.8 mm of rainfall in 2024 — 108% of the LPA — marking the most abundant monsoon since 2020. In comparison, the country recorded 820 mm in 2023 (94.4%), 925 mm in 2022, 870 mm in 2021, and 958 mm in 2020.

More Than Just Rain
The southwest monsoon isn’t just a weather event; it’s an economic lifeline. Nearly 42% of India’s population is engaged in agriculture, a sector that depends heavily on timely and sufficient monsoon rains. The monsoon also plays a vital role in refilling reservoirs used for drinking water, irrigation, and hydroelectric power generation.

The IMD emphasizes that the onset in Kerala is only the beginning. The monsoon will gradually progress northward, typically covering the entire country by July 8, before beginning its withdrawal from northwest India around mid-September and exiting fully by October 15.